There are six factors that could affect the conduct of Saturday’s election, the prominent civic group YIAGA Africa said in a report released Thursday.
Factors include PVC collection challenges, voter relocation to new voting units, and economic hardship.
The organization, in a statement on Thursday, said the latest report was based on its observations in Nigeria during the last week before the election.
Read the full statement below.
Yiaga Africa Pre-Election Press Release for 2023 Presidential Election
On Saturday, February 25, 2023, Nigerians from all thirty-six states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) will go to the polls to elect a president and federal legislators across the country. The date is symbolic as it will be exactly one year since the new Electoral Law 2022 was enacted. Although the law was tested in two elections outside the circle, the 2023 elections will be the first national elections to be held under the new electoral legal framework. Thus, the 2023 presidential election is a litmus test for the new electoral law, especially in the deployment of electoral technology and the power of INEC to review election results declared involuntarily or in violation of electoral guidelines. With the competitive nature of presidential elections, the threshold for evaluating the quality of the election will be higher as Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the Nigerian Police Force and other election stakeholders cannot afford to fail Nigeria in its effort to hold credible elections.
Clearly, Nigerians, Africa and the international community have high expectations that Nigeria will consolidate the gains of recent electoral reforms. INEC and other stakeholders bear an enormous burden to conduct an election that inspires public confidence and renews hope in the power of the ballot.
Yiaga Africa congratulates the political parties and candidates for signing the National Peace Agreement, an initiative of the National Peace Committee, headed by the former Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar. We call on parties and candidates to remain committed to the peace agreement and urge party supporters to keep the peace during and after the elections.
This briefing is the first in a series of planned press conferences to be hosted by Yiaga Africa. We also invite you to join us at the same venue on Saturday, February 25, 2023 when Yiaga Africa will share its Noon Position Statement on the opening of the polls. On Sunday, February 26, 2023 at 10:00 am, Yiaga Africa will share his preliminary statement on the conduct of the presidential election process. Yiaga Africa will follow up with a final press conference to share its own statement on the accuracy of the election results and will publish these projections.
YIAGA Summary of Key Findings from Yiaga Africa Pre-Election Observation
Yiaga Africa deployed 822 Long-Term Observers (LTOs) to Nigeria’s 774 Local Government Areas (LGAs) from November 2022 to February 2023, who monitored political developments and general election preparations. A detailed report of the 6 observation periods is available on the Yiaga Africa website yiaga.org. The pre-election observation revealed a marked improvement in logistics planning in relation to the production and deployment of electoral materials by INEC amid perennial challenges such as insecurity and emerging threats such as a shortage of Naira banknotes. In particular, INEC’s decision to produce electoral materials in the country is commendable. A summary of the highlights of the findings from that observation includes;
INEC preparation for the elections: In the week leading up to the elections, Yiaga Africa WTV observed the ongoing activities of INEC in the local government areas of the state. Long-term observers reported the deployment of non-confidential materials at observed LGAs and the training of election officials. In addition, the observers reported the beginning of the classification and distribution of confidential materials from the offices of the Central Bank of Nigeria in the state capitals to the LGAs in the respective states. As of February 22, 2023, Yiaga Africa received reports of; Ondo, Oyo, Ekiti, Yobe, Enugu, Ekiti and Zamfara states where deployment of sensitive CBN materials to LGAs had begun. Compared to the previous general, this is a marked improvement. Reports from other states indicate that the deployment of LGA-sensitive materials will begin on February 23, 2023.
Issues arising from the 2023 presidential election
Yiaga Africa points out some developments that could affect the holding of credible elections on February 25, 2023:
PVC collection challenges and data for collection rate at voting unit level: Yiaga Africa notes that the litany of complaints about PVCs not collected largely due to unavailability of cards is worrying. Yiaga Africa is concerned that a large number of eligible voters may be disenfranchised through no fault of their own. In addition, the delay in the publication of the final figure of PVC collected is per table at the national level. Data on PVCs collected per voting unit is important in determining the conclusiveness of the election, as INEC hopes to use the data in applying the lead margin principle.
2. Voter Relocation to New Voting Units Can Lead to Potential Disenfranchisement: Mock accreditation revealed that, in an attempt by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to decongest some of its oversized voting units, the commission relocated voters to new voting units. However, voters approached their voting units for mock accreditation before realizing they had been relocated to new voting units. While we commend the commission’s recent efforts in providing information on how voters can identify their voting units, we are concerned that some affected voters are not identifying their polling places on or before Election Day. Yiaga Africa will constitute panic, turmoil and possible disenfranchisement on Election Day.
3. Economic Hardship May Affect Citizen Participation: With just 48 hours to go until the presidential election, Nigerians are experiencing untold economic hardship caused by the recent shortage of new naira notes and endless fuel shortages. This has led to a series of protests in different parts of the country. This growing discontent among citizens can lead to voter apathy in the form of “protest”, which will eventually lead to low voter turnout. We are also concerned that citizens facing these forms of hardship before elections are unable to make informed decisions at the polls.
4. Addressing the challenges experienced during the accreditation drill: Although participation in the process was low, we congratulate the Independent National Electoral Commission for conducting an accreditation drill to test the functionality of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS). The commission needs to urgently address the challenges noted during the accreditation drill to ensure that the BVAS device works optimally across the country on Election Day.
5. Security concerns and threats to the conduct of the elections: Throughout the pre-election period, security challenges persisted in various locations. Beyond the insurgency, banditry and kidnapping, the security situation prevailing ahead of the 2023 presidential elections has been exacerbated by the tense political atmosphere.
6. Potential Vote Swapping: The current Naira redesign policy aimed at eliminating vote buying in elections has resulted in a cash shortage making it difficult for citizens to meet basic household needs. Yiaga Africa is concerned that the negative impact of the policy could encourage voters to sell their votes for scarce Naira notes.
YIAGA Yiaga Africa observation of the 2023 presidential election
For the presidential elections, Yiaga Africa will deploy a total of 3,836 observers across the country. This is made up of 3,014 stationary Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) observers deployed in a random representative statistical sample of 1,507 voting units; 822 roving observers in all 774 LGAs and 36 states; and 8 members of the Working Group who carry out electoral analysis in real time. Yiaga Africa will also deploy observers to State Results Collection Centers and LGAs in all states. Our observers will observe the entire process on Election Day from the installation of the voting units to the announcement, publication of the official results and the uploading of the voting units on the INEC Results Viewing Portal. The observers will send regular reports to the Watching the Vote National Data Center located at the Transcorp Hilton in Abuja, where they will be processed and analyzed.
This deployment will enable Yiaga Africa to provide the most timely and accurate information on the electoral process. Based on the reports of its observers in the sampled voting units, Yiaga Africa will also provide an independent projection of voter turnout and will be able to project the percentages of votes that each party should receive within a narrow estimated range. If the official results are within the estimated ranges of Yiaga Africa, then the public, political parties and candidates should have confidence in the votes cast in the electoral units. However, only INEC has the legal mandate to announce the results of the elections. As soon as INEC announces the official results, Yiaga Africa will follow up with a results verification press conference to share its own statement on the accuracy of the election results and will publish these projections.
Using information communication technology and statistical principles, PVT is the gold standard for citizen election observation and has been used throughout Africa and the world. Yiaga Africa also implemented this methodology in the 2019 presidential election and eleven (11) off-cycle gubernatorial elections in Nigeria.
Yiaga Africa reaffirms its commitment to objective, impartial and credible observation of the elections. Watching The Vote is “data driven, for all Nigerians, beholden to none!”
Thank you and God bless the people of Nigeria!
Yiaga Africa’s Watching the Vote is “Data-Driven, For All Nigerians, Beholden To None!”
Dr. Hussaini AbduChairman, Observing Voting Working Group, Yiaga Africa
Samson ItodoCEO, Yiaga Africa